Multiple signals prospects for shrimp exports

According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers Vietnam (VASEP), shrimp exports will prosper in 2016. The forecast for this sector will grow with a turnover of $ 3.3 billion, up 12% with 2015.

2016, shrimp exports are forecast to reach $ 3.3 billion, up 12% compared to 2015. The data showed VASEP, the first half of 2015, shrimp exports to some major markets have plummeted as Americans (over 50%), China (28%), Japan (19%) and EU (over 14%). And according to estimates, the shrimp export turnover in 2015 was only $ 3 billion, with 75% of the results of 2014, the market shrunk nearly 1/3.

The cause of this decline is due to a long period of time, keep the VND against the dollar, while other currencies declined, making Vietnam shrimp prices are not competitive with other countries. Besides, the supply increases while demand reduction should also make Vietnam shrimp fiercer competition.

However, shrimp exports in 2016 are expected to grow well with a turnover of $ 3.3 billion, up 12% compared to 2015.

This optimistic forecast is VASEP made based on tax advantages for major markets such as the EU and Japan; Meanwhile, many countries such as India's main rival, Thailand, Indonesia does not join the TPP, or no free trade agreement with the EU. Shrimp exports to US may rise again thanks to the economic recovery of this country.

Even the early days of 2016, the import market of Vietnam's largest shrimp is the US (accounting for over 50% of Vietnam's shrimp exports) signals are optimistic about consumption: During the Christmas holiday and new year's shrimp products are sold in many supermarket chains due to lower prices compared with 2014 holiday season.

Scott Nettles, director of United Supermarkets in Texas, said sales this year to increase the size shrimp, while last year, customers purchasing multiple smaller shrimp so affordable. According to Scott Nettles, seafood prices are not cheaper than other meat, but fell from the previous year, so consumers buy more.

And seafood supermarket owners in the state of Michigan, said Monahan, supermarkets have sold a large number of shrimp in the past holiday season. According to him, this year as the economy improves and the warmer weather, so seafood sales increase.

According to data from the University of Florida (USA), 90% of the shrimp consumed in the US is imported. In 2014, 626,000 tons of shrimp imported US, worth nearly 6.7 billion dollars. Also in 2015, US shrimp imports increased by 4%.

Still many challenges

EMS 2014 pandemic caused more shrimp industry's largest shrimp exporter in the world of hardships. Particularly Vietnam, successfully controlled by this pandemic should put themselves on the world's leading shrimp export value to 96 market.

However, James Anderson, GS. in the Department of Food and Agricultural Sciences at the University of Florida (USA), said today the world shrimp production is recovering from the disease this year EMS and expected output will return to the levels of 2011 . In short, small shrimp supply is expected to increase as manufacturers try to minimize the risk of disease.

Truong Dinh Hoe, VASEP general secretary said that together with the stability of the world shrimp production after EMS service, Vietnam's shrimp exports are also many challenges such as aquatic product price higher than Vietnam with rival countries, while production costs continue to rise due to input depends on foreign supplies (seed, feed, veterinary drugs).

Production cost is a seed of Vietnam now almost 2 times higher than India. The cost of food in Vietnam's shrimp farming also 40% higher than the average ...

Although faced with many challenges, Vietnam shrimp exporters still have a chance optimistic positive signals from information anti-dumping duty and wave decline FTA and TPP.

Accordingly, the shrimp have a clear advantage after the signing of the bilateral FTA with South Korea, the EU, the Union and the Eurasian Economic TPP. Import duties most of the raw shrimp is reduced to 0% as soon as the agreement takes effect.

Shrimp price increases

According to the MARD, raw shrimp market is also showing signs of prosperity back in 12/2015.

In Soc Trang, white shrimp prices of raw materials rose sharply, especially for large shrimp. Specifically, shrimp kind of 40 / kg currently stands at 145,000 VND / kg, an increase of 15,000 VND / kg compared with the end of November; type 60 / kg price at 125,000 VND / kg, up 9,000 VND / kg.

Similarly, since the beginning of December to the current price of shrimp variety of very strong increases in Ca Mau.

Raw prawn rose 10000-25000 / kg compared with the end of November: shrimp type 20 / kg increased from 250,000 VND / kg to VND 260,000 / kg; 30 shrimp / kg from 175,000 VND / kg increased to 190,000 VND / kg. White shrimp price hikes also: Shrimp size 100 / kg from 93,000 VND / kg to VND 105,000 / kg, size 70 / kg from 115,000 VND / kg to VND 158,000 / kg.

The increase is due to the price of shrimp in the current month is the time when plants need export processing and export market is improving.